First Round Probability

Picks 1-5

Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M  100%

Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan  100%

Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama 100%

Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida 90%

Dion Jordan, DE/OLB, Oregon 90%

Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma  85%

Ziggy Ansah, DE, BYU 80%

Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah  75%

Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia 75%

Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia 60%

Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama 60%

The first five picks of the draft are relatively lackluster compared to previous drafts. There aren’t any superstar players, however there are three offensive tackles who are highly scouted as “game ready.” They will be starters for years to come.

Numerous teams have a desperate need for help in their secondary, Dee Milliner is no Patrick Peterson, but he is by far the best cornerback in this draft.

A number of teams need to solve their quarterback issues, I don’t see any of the top five selections drafting the highly ranked Geno Smith this year. Instead I see the quarterback hungry teams drafting offensive linemen to draft a solid foundation of linemen while they wait for a better quarterback.

Picks 6-10

Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri 100%

Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida 100%

Dion Jordan, DE/OLB, Oregon 100%

Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma  100%

Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah  100%

Ziggy Ansah, DE, BYU 95%

Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama 95%

Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia 90%

Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia 85%

Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina 80%

Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU 75%

Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame 70%

Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas 60%

D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama  60%

This draft makes up for its lack of superstars by its depth in linemen. I expect the picks here to be mainly teams that desperately need a disruptive pass rusher with a few surprises with teams trading up to draft the most talented wide receiver Tavon Austin, safety Kenny Vaccaro, or tight end Tyler Eifert

We may see Geno Smith selected in this range. This would be done by a team trading up most likely, knowing they can’t draft any of the three dominant offensive tackles (Lane JohnsonEric Fisher, or Luke Joeckel) they will settle for the best quarterback in this draft. 

Picks 11-15

Ziggy Ansah, DE, BYU 100%

Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama 100%

Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia 95%

Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina 95%

Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia 90%

Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas 90%

D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama  90%

D.J. Hayden, CB, Houston 90%

Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU 85%

Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia 85%

Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame 80%

Kyle Long,OG, Oregon 80%

Justin Pugh, OT, Syracuse 80%

Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina 80%

Matt Elam, FS, Florida 75%

Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama 70%

Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State 70%

The picks here will be the first set of five selections that will include a lot of variety. We will certainly see a few cornerbacks walk up to the stage as well as Roger Goodell appearing to announce a trade or two. There may be a few bold teams that will attempt to gain a pick here to have their selection of cornerbacks.

Picks 16-20

Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia 100%

Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina 100%

Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU 100%

Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia 95%

Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame 95%

Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas 95%

Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia 95%

D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama  90%

D.J. Hayden, CB, Houston 90%

Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State 90%

Menelik Watson, OT, Florida State 90%

Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina 85%

Justin Pugh, OT, Syracuse 85%

Kyle Long,OG, Oregon 80%

Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama 80%

Matt Elam, FS, Florida 75%

Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State 75%

Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington 70%

Keenan Allen, WR, California 70%

Eric Reid,FS, LSU 70%

Datone Jones, DE, UCLA 70%

Manti Te’o, ILB, Notre Dame 60%

Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee 50%

Matt Barkley, QB, USC 40%

We well see the last of the “Tier 1” players in this draft around the selections of 16-20. Geno Smith would be a steal here for a team in need of a cornerback assuming they trade back to grab him. Numerous teams are reportedly interested in defensive end Barkevious Mingo out of LSU and will be thrilled if they can draft him here.

Picks 21-25

Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia 100%

Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame 100%

Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas 100%

D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama  100%

D.J. Hayden, CB, Houston 95%

Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia 95%

Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State 95%

Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina 95%

Justin Pugh, OT, Syracuse 95%

Matt Elam, FS, Florida 95%

Keenan Allen, WR, California 90%

Menelik Watson, OT, Florida State 90%

Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama 85%

Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State 85%

Datone Jones, DE, UCLA 85%

Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington 85%

Arthur Brown, ILB, Kansas State 80%

Kyle Long,OG, Oregon 80%

Manti Te’o, ILB, Notre Dame 80%

Eric Reid,FS, LSU 80%

Kevin Minter,ILB, LSU 80%

Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee 75%

Alec Ogletree, ILB, Georgia 75%

Jamar Taylor, CB, Boise State 75%

Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee 70%

Damontre Moore, DE, Texas A&M 70%

Jonathan Cyprien, FS, Florida International 70%

Zach Ertz, TE, Stanford 70%

Matt Barkley, QB, USC 60%

EJ Manuel, QB, Florida State 40%

It’s certainly difficult for a tight end and a safety to be drafted in the top fifteen now, especially if they aren’t of elite status. However, since there are large gaps between the positions best players and the rest of the players some teams that desperately need a safety or a tight end will have a hard look at trading up or down to select them here.

Picks 26-32

D.J. Hayden, CB, Houston 100%

Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State 100%

Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina 100%

Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia 95%

Justin Pugh, OT, Syracuse 95%

Matt Elam, FS, Florida 95%

Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State 95%

Datone Jones, DE, UCLA 95%

Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington 95%

Keenan Allen, WR, California 95%

Jamar Taylor, CB, Boise State 95%

Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama 90%

Kyle Long,OG, Oregon 90%

Eric Reid,FS, LSU 90%

Menelik Watson, OT, Florida State 90%

Manti Te’o, ILB, Notre Dame 85%

Alec Ogletree, ILB, Georgia 85%

Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee 85%

Kevin Minter,ILB, LSU 85%

Arthur Brown, ILB, Kansas State 85%

Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee 80%

DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson 80%

Matt Barkley, QB, USC 80%

Damontre Moore, DE, Texas A&M 80%

Jonathan Cyprien, FS, Florida International 80%

Zach Ertz, TE, Stanford 75%

Johnthan Banks, CB, Mississippi State 70%

Margus Hunt, DE, SMU  70%

Kawann Short, DT, Purdue 70%

Robert Woods, WR, USC 70%

EJ Manuel, QB, Florida State 60%

Ryan Nassib, QB, Syracuse 50%

Montee Ball, RB, Wisconsin 40%

Most of the teams drafting at the bottom of each round are there for a reason. They know how to win. Except for an outlier (Ravens) these teams already have a solid foundation of leaders on offense and defense. I don’t see any of these teams trading up to select someone.

However I do anticipate a few teams possibly trading down and stockpiling picks for next year if their targets do get drafted early.

For example if the Broncos and Patriots both miss out on cornerbacks Desmond Trufant and Xavier Rhodes we could see movement by some weaker teams who need to fill lots of holes.

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